Economic Data,
Forecasts and Events
Economic data and economic
information about South Africa and the region. Data releases,
financial market trends, economic
reviews and events, and forecasts. Economic indicators such as interest rates,
exchange rates, repo rate, interbank rate, forward rates, monetary
aggregates, consumer price index (CPI and CPIX) and producer price
index (PPI).
Reading: Zumanomics:
Which way to shared prosperity in South Africa? Challenge for new
government, Editor Raymond Parsons.
South Africa stands at an historical
political and economic crossroad in 2009. Globally the widespread
world recession has serious consequences for the slowing South
African economy.
|
|
Standard
Bank provides a Calendar
 (PDF)
of the release dates of economic statistics for the
third quarter 2010 |
Economic
information is organised as follows:
 | Topical comment |
| Information provided daily
|
| Information provided weekly
|
| Information provided monthly
|
| Information provided periodically
or on an ad hoc basis |
| Information provided quarterly
or longer
includes SA National Budget and SA Reserve
Bank Annual Review |
| Information provided as formatted downloads,
eg time series |
|
Latest research
Economics Division
|
|
|
Topical:
Private sector credit extension
According to the latest figures from the South
African Reserve Bank (SARB), growth in money supply came in above
expectations, rising by 3.7% y/y in July from 2.4% y/y in June. Growth
in credit extension increased above our expectations, rising to 2% y/y
in July from an increase of 0.9% y/y in June, owing to an increased
uptake of new mortgage loans. While there are tentative signs that
growth in credit extension is improving, the loss in domestic growth
momentum in the second half of the year is a harbinger of weak growth
in credit extension. Nonetheless, consumers are anxiously awaiting
further monetary policy reprieve, which may materialise as early as
next week. Monetary policy accommodation of 50 basis points is
expected, which could boost credit spending in the remaining months of
the year. However, consumers are fully aware that the stresses in the
labour market may not allow for robust spending on credit. ... [Standard
Bank] 0831 |
|
|
Daily
|
|
| |
SA Reserve Bank - Current Market Rates |
| |
A table of daily market rates and other
data over the past seven days. It includes the average
repo rate, marginal lending rate, interbank call rate and
other money market rates; liquidity requirements; capital
market yields on government stock; and nominal effective
exchange rates of the SA Rand. |
| |
Absa
- SA
Morning Sheet |
| |
A daily
economic report |
Weekly
|
|
|
|
Standard
Bank - Weekly
Preview
(PDF)
|
| |
Uncertainties
reinforce the case for a rate cut
South Africa:
* Manufacturing production expected to have eased in
July
* A close call but MPC expected to relent
Global economy:
* UK manufacturing production seen rising
* US consumer credit expected to continue declining
* Japan economic indicators reflecting a volatile state ... more |
|
|
First
National Bank - Economic Comment |
| |
Weekly
comment provides analysis of a topical nature on economic prospects,
data releases, global conditions and financial markets. |
|
|
Nedbank Group - Economic
Updates |
| |
Comment on economic indicators. |
|
|
NedBank -
Economic
Monitor |
| |
Provides an
economic commentary with graphs; a domestic review over the previous week and
previews the week ahead. An international review is also provided. |
Monthly
|
|
| |
SA Reserve Bank - Composite
business cycle indicators |
| |
The data in this release are in tabular
form and represent an abstract of statistics published regularly in the Reserve Bank's
Quarterly Bulletin. The release is divided into sections covering:
Sales; volume of production; and composite business cycle indicators. The purpose of the Release is to
update selected monthly statistics between publications
of the Quarterly Bulletin. |
|
|
Standard
Bank - Macroeconomic
Forecast
(PDF)
|
| |
Macroeconomic
perspective & forecasts
In a dramatic change in economic fortunes, no longer are
vulnerabilities in the Euro-zone stealing the headlines; the
macroeconomic torch is being shone into the dark corners of the US
economy. Many envision a double-dip recession in the US as a plausible
scenario. To be sure, downside risks to mainstream economic forecasts
are more pronounced than at the start of the year. This is reflected
in the tone of commentary emanating from key central banks across the
globe. In addition, the growth in critical growth-inducing emerging
markets, due to their reliance on external demand, is far more
vulnerable than previously. However, the probability of a second
recession, the much feared double-dip, is still around 25%.
Importantly, economic fragility is shared on both sides of the
Atlantic Ocean. Forget who is relatively better or worse off, a
sustainable global recovery requires both to grind ahead. ... more |
| |
SA Reserve Bank - Monthly Release of Selected
Data |
| |
The data in this release are in tabular
form and represent an abstract of statistics published regularly in the Reserve Bank's
Quarterly Bulletin. The release is divided into sections covering: Money
and banking; Banks and mutual banks; International economic data;
Capital market; National government finance; and Economic indicators. The purpose of the Release is to
update selected monthly statistics between publications
of the Quarterly Bulletin. |
|
|
First
National Bank - Big
Sky Country |
| |
Comment
that provides analysis of a topical nature on economic prospects,
data releases, global conditions and financial markets. |
|
|
Nedbank Group - Facts
and Forecasts |
| |
Annual facts and forecasts of key economic variables. |
| |
First National Bank -
Popular Data |
|
The
Popular Data section provides historical data relating to the SA
Economic Indicators (in MS Excel format). |
| |
Rand
Merchant Bank/First National Bank
- Picture SA |
|
|
This monthly publication discusses
the various factors driving the South African economy. Topics such as
Gross Domestic Product, Inflation and The Exchange Rate are discussed
in this brief. Graphical representation is also supplied.
|
|
Rand Merchant Bank/First National Bank - SA Perspectives |
|
A monthly SA
Research Note providing
insights into economic, and economic policy, issues in South Africa. |
|
Updated
monthly |
Standard
Bank - Foreign
Trade Alert |
|
Trade
surplus surprises
The trade account, in an unexpected turn of events, registered a
surplus of R2.019bn in May from April’s trade deficit of R1.456bn as
exports reversed some of the declines that we have become accustomed
to of late. Furthermore, and unexpectedly, imports declined to its
lowest level since December 2006. While this may lift sentiment that
the string of trade deficits may just be behind as, it might not be
wise to count your chickens before they hatch. Economic developments
thus far this year are pointing the needle to further declines in
exports, by as much as 10%, which casts doubt on whether further
surpluses are in the pipeline. ... more |
Updated
monthly |
SA
Revenue Services - Trade Data |
|
SARS
provides the following data
* Preliminary Trade Statistics (monthly, at the end of the month for
the previous month)
* Schedule 1 Part 1 - Ordinary Custom Duty
* South Africa's main trading partners: 1997 - 2007
* Detailed Bilateral Trade Data by Country
* World Zones by Month - Imports
* World Zones by Month - Exports
* Top 10 Commodities by value
* Description of the 23 Trade Sections
* Trade agreements |
Updated
monthly |
South
African Chamber of Commerce and Industry, SACCI - Trade
Conditions Survey
|
|
SACCI releases a monthly Trade Conditions Survey.
This survey is conducted amongst businesses, it reflects a very recent
business assessment of the trade environment in the country. The
results from the survey are of benefit to all business decision
makers, economists and other analysts. Although the SATAI and SATEI
are the two most prominent indices of the survey, the overview of
trading conditions also reports on inventory holdings, new orders,
backlog on orders received, supplier deliveries, input and
selling-price movements, export and import activity of business, and
job creation activities and prospects. |
Periodically
|
|
|
September
2010
|
Nedbank Group - Guide
to the Economy |
|
International
background and outlook
Recent trends in developed economies have rekindled fears of a renewed
slump in activity. The initial boost from expansionary monetary and
fiscal policies is beginning to fade and economies have yet to develop
more natural momentum. Companies are reluctant to invest and employ in
the current uncertain climate and household spending has been limited
by reduced credit availability and weak confidence. Developing world
growth remains firm, dominated by continuing expansion in China and
India.
Domestic review and prospects
Growth in the domestic economy has slowed. The hosting of the 2010
FIFA World Cup was a resounding success, but early indications are the
immediate benefits were smaller than initially estimated, at least in
the short term. Household spending rose firmly over the period, but
credit growth still remains weak despite relatively low interest
rates. Companies have cut back on investment, given excess capacity
and uncertainty over the economic outlook. Rand strength and positive
inflation surprises have increased the chances of another cut in
interest rates. ... more |
|
July
2010
|
OECD
- Economic
Survey of South Africa |
|
South Africa
needs to boost growth through making better use of its resource
endowments. Despite a strong macroeconomic policy framework, job
creation and productivity growth remain too low to underpin sustained
rapid GDP per capita growth. The overarching challenge for South
Africa is to boost its trend growth rate and create jobs.
Growth has resumed, and is likely to strengthen this
year and next. The economy turned around in the second half of 2009.
House prices are picking up and leading indicators signalling growing
strength, external conditions have become more favourable.
Furthermore, the economy is being boosted by the staging of the World
Cup. Growth is expected to accelerate in 2010 and exceed potential in
2011.
South Africa needs to improve its environmental
performance. South Africa tends to score relatively poorly on broad
indices of environmental conditions, especially in the area of
greenhouse gas emissions. The need for progress on tackling climate
change has been recognised by the government, but little concrete
action has yet been.
Low employment remains the overriding policy
challenge. South Africa has an extreme and persistent low employment
problem, which interacts with other economic and social problems such
as inadequate education, poor health outcomes and crime. As in other
countries, vulnerable groups are most affected by unemployment, and in
South Africa the problem is most extreme for black youth. ... more |
|
February
2010
|
Standard Bank -
The
Economy in 2010
(PDF 2,4 MB) |
|
The recession is
dead. Long live the upswing! Much of the past two years were
unpleasant for much of humanity. While recessions are always traumatic
the memories of this wreck will linger, if not remain forever etched
in people’s minds.
The central metrics signalling the prospect of durable gains in global
prosperity will emanate from the labour market. This will also help to
reconcile the contrasting signals from Main Street (grinding,
unsynchronized recovery) and Wall Street (swift, healthy revival). For
the moment the former holds greater sway and is bitingly confirmed by
the still perilously soft US labour market. Nonetheless, 2010 will be
more agreeable even though the tide will rise slowly.
Notably, while governments generally shrank since the mid-1990s, they
grew bigger in this recession. In 2010, amid inflamed deficits and
debt, governments must function smarter and do more with less.
Naturally, it will be difficult to veer from stimulus to thrift and
remain geared for growth, but there really is no constructive
alternative. Also, bad economics will generally make for stirring
politics. For instance, expect regime change in Britain in May.
This year will be particularly momentous for the choices public and
private leadership make in redesigning the governance framework
embracing financial services. ... more |
|
October
2009
|
Standard Bank -
MTEF
October 2009
(PDF) |
|
Medium Term
Budget Policy Statement and Medium Term Expenditure Framework
The new SA Finance Minister, Pravin Gordhan,
delivered the first Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) under
the new Presidency with grace. Acknowledging in the first few lines of
his speech that amid the challenging times facing the economy, there
is also vast opportunity to react boldly so as to overcome the
challenges facing the economy in this period. The Minister of Finance
had to deal with difficult economic, social and political issues in
preparing his first Medium Term Expenditure Framework. The economy is
in a severe recession, social problems seem to be growing and some new
policy directions had to be factored in. A delicate balancing act was
required. Like the rest of the world revenue streams have been under
tremendous strain in 2009/10, pushing up the deficit to 7.6% of GDP.
Over the next three years the deficit is budgeted to gradually decline
to 4.2% of GDP. Total consolidated expenditure is projected to
increase by 7.8% over the next three years. Furthermore a
reprioritisation of spending and the elimination of wasteful spending
also form part of the MTBPS. ... more |
|
|
SA Reserve Bank - Economic and Financial Data
for South Africa |
| |
A wide range of data is supplied in
tabular format and corresponds to the data described on
the IMF's Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). |
|
First National Bank
- The
Forecast |
|
The Forecast
covers 5-year views for GDP, Inflation, Prime interest rate, the Rand
and the Balance-of-Payments. Also, there is a 12-month forward look
for CPI and PPI inflation. South Africa's short and long-term interest
rates are examined in Taylor's Rule and External SA Risk. |
Quarterly and longer
|
July
2010 |
Absa
- Quarterly
Economic
Perspective |
|
Recovery extends beyond the World Cup
South Africa Outlook
... South Africa’s economic recovery from
last year’s recession has so far exceeded our expectations, with GDP
growth rising to 4.6% q/q in the first quarter from 3.2%. We generally
remain constructive on the economic upturn and project the economy to
grow by 3.3% in 2010. .. The near term inflation outlook remains
favourable and we believe that consumer price inflation is likely to
remain below the upper inflation target band for the remainder of
2010. Administered price increases and wage price inflation continue
to pose medium- to longer-term upside risks to inflation. .. Although
a more comfortable inflation outlook in the coming months could
provide room for a further interest rate cut, the generally
stronger-than-expected outturn in real economy data suggests that
sufficient monetary stimulus has been delivered; and together with
uncertainty around the impact from global events, argues for a
cautious approach to policy. As a baseline, we expect the policy
interest rate to be held at 6.5% into mid-2011. .. The rand remains
well supported through portfolio flows. International news and events
rather than domestic developments are likely to continue underpinning
moves in the currency. From a fundamental perspective, we see the rand
retaining its 7.40-7.90/USD range for the coming quarters.
International Outlook
... The cyclical factors that have been driving growth for the past
six quarters will likely begin to yield to medium-term secular forces.
.. We believe markets may be overly pessimistic about the possibility
of a near term debt incident in peripheral Europe. The longer-term
implication of the European crisis is likely not to be default, but
rather fiscal consolidation among advanced economies too early in the
cycle. Policy inflexibility increases the downside risks to growth. ..
Emerging markets are decoupling again, and absent a large negative
shock, we believe medium-term strong economic outperformance is likely
to continue. .. China’s soft landing is under way, but we do not
believe it poses a large risk to global growth. Chances of a hard
landing appear low despite deflation of the property bubble.
... more |
June
2010 |
SA Reserve Bank - Quarterly Bulletin |
|
... Real gross
domestic expenditure supported the stronger growth in the first
quarter, with all the major expenditure components registering
improvements. Real final consumption expenditure by households picked
up strongly, with purchases of semi-durable and durable goods
progressing at double-digit rates. This was facilitated by an
acceleration in the growth rate of real disposable income, relatively
low interest rates and inflation, positive wealth effects, and an
improvement in household confidence. With the increase in consumption
expenditure well aligned with the growth in personal disposable
income, the ratio of household debt to disposable income declined in
the first quarter of 2010.
The general government’s real final consumption
expenditure accelerated strongly in the first quarter, reflecting
purchases of military aircraft and an increase in staff numbers in the
public sector.
Real gross fixed capital formation by general
government contracted somewhat in the first quarter of 2010 as
decreases were recorded by all levels of government. In the private
sector real capital outlays also edged lower, although at a slower
pace than the contractions observed during 2009. Capital expenditure
by the private sector increased in areas such as construction,
telecommunications and accommodation, partly related to the expected
influx of tourists during the 2010 FIFA World Cup™ tournament.
However, this was offset by lower capital outlays in agriculture,
mining and manufacturing. ... more |
17
February
2009 |
National
Treasury - National
Budget 2010: Budget Speech |
|
The 2010
National Budget speech delivered by Pravin Gordhan, the Minister of
Finance, to Parliament on 17 February 2010. |
17
February
2009
|
National
Treasury - National
Budget 2010 |
|
|
The 2010 National
Budget Review provides an updated and more detailed account
of macroeconomic developments, an overview of trends in public
finances, a review of provincial and local government finances,
changes in medium term expenditure plans, revenue issues and tax
proposals. The Budget Review is compulsory reading for anyone
interested in fiscal policy and public finances in South Africa.
Also provided are the Estimates
of National Expenditure; Estimate
of National Revenue (PDF); A People's Guide to the Budget (PDF);
Budget Tax Proposals
(PDF) |
February
2010 |
SA
comment - National Budget 2010 |
|
|
September
2009
|
SA Reserve Bank - Annual
Economic Report - 2008/9
|
|
|
The Bank has
diverse responsibilities and roles in both the domestic and
international arenas. These activities are highlighted in this report.
The overriding objective of the Bank remains the achievement and
maintenance of price stability, which it implements within an
inflation-targeting framework. Apart from monetary policy, the Bank is
also responsible for the production of notes and coin; oversight of
the national payment system; bank supervision; management of gold and
foreign-exchange reserves; and administration of exchange control
measures.
During the past year, the global financial crisis
meant that the Bank became more closely involved in international
forums, particularly the Group of Twenty (G-20), as part of a co-ordinated
global policy response to the crisis. The Bank has also maintained a
greater focus on financial stability in general. Fortunately, the
domestic financial sector has been relatively insulated from the
direct impacts of the global financial-sector crisis through
appropriate monitoring and supervision of the domestic banking sector.
The heightened uncertainty in international
financial markets also resulted in a highly synchronised global
economic downturn in the final quarter of 2008. South Africa was not
immune to these developments, and negative growth was experienced in
the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first two quarters of 2009. ... more |
September
2009
|
SA Reserve Bank - Address
by Tito Mboweni, Governor, at the Ordinary General Meeting of
Shareholders of the Bank (September
2009) |
|
|
The past year
has witnessed the most severe global economic downturn since the
1930s. At the time of the previous annual general meeting, the impact
of the financial market crisis was becoming evident in various
economies. However, at that stage the extent and depth of the global
recession were still to be realised. In response to the slowdown,
central banks and governments around the world have taken
unprecedented and unconventional steps to protect their banking
systems and economies. In South Africa the well-regulated banking
system was relatively insulated from the fallout. However, the
globalised nature of the downturn meant that the domestic economy was
not spared, and the resulting domestic recession required appropriate
fiscal and monetary policy responses.
These developments posed a new challenge to monetary
policy and resulted in a renewed focus on matters of financial
stability. Appropriate supervision and regulation of the domestic
banking sector and payment system have ensured an orderly financial
market environment. Although inflation was outside the target range,
the stance of monetary policy was loosened significantly in the face
of an expected moderation in inflation and a weakening economy.
Nevertheless, some upside risks to the inflation outlook remained and
this constrained the monetary policy response somewhat. Apart from
these concerns, the South African Reserve Bank (the Bank) also focused
on maintaining and improving its internal operations. ... more |
|
National
Treasury - Previous
Budgets and related documents |
|
Generally the budget the following is provided:
Budget Documents: National Budget Speech; National Budget Review;
National Expenditure Survey; People's Guide to the Budget; Provincial
Budgets.
Guide to Capital Gains Tax.
Estimate of Revenue for the Financial Year ending 31 March 2001.
Estimate of Expenditure to be defrayed from the National Revenue Fund. |
